(originally wrote at June 6 at 11:56pm)
First, I'd like to express my condolences to those who has passed away in the earthquake at Kinabalu yesterday.
I think political change is very much similar to the earthquake. There are more and more earthquakes to places around the ring of fire, in Nepal, Japan, and also Kinabalu. That's a process of tectonic shift, since the plate tectonics have moved around. So does politics, there are forces and factors to move political tectonics around.
Although, the highlight was at the Najib's no-show & Dr M's speech at Putra World Trade Centre (PWTC), (also houses UMNO's headquarter), at "Nothing2Hide" organized by SukaGuam (Malaysian Volunteer Lawyers Association) yesterday.
There were several versions of truth to blame over the postponement of the event, IGP's security concern, a dialogue must be held in peaceful manner, PM's weakness, PM's "beralah" (I don't know how to translate this word in English, compassion?), to the problem of PM's aide (this is from the organizer. Obviously, the organizer doesn't want to blame both Najib and Dr M, so they need someone else to be blamed). Several versions of truth similar to Akira Kurosawa's Rashōmon. Thus, nobody knows the real cause.
OK. The sequence is this: (1) SukaGuam organized the Nothing2Hide forum to give the platform for the PM to have dialogue a 1MDB issue with NGOs. (2) A rumor that Dr M would attend to forum despite he was not invited. (3) IGP announced a security concern hence canceling the event. (4) Dr M asked the organizer to make a speech. (5) Dr M had been barred from IGP while he mentioned Jho Low and 1MDB (sees mins 5.09 on the video clip, the climate was so intense). (6) After some negotiation, there was some press conference by Dr M. (7) Outrages on social media on Najib's no-show, including Johor's crown prince.
If I may add one more version of truth, a realpolitik one, Najib just needs not to debate with Dr M. The debating gives less benefit to Najib. He just needs the platform to cool the outrages regarding the 1MDB down, which is not this debate, especially with Dr M. Until then, he just waits for the report from the Parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC) on next month. After that, Najib may decide how to make his move further. It must be him, not Dr M to decide the political tempo.
Regarding the consequence of 1MDB to corrode voting result of both UMNO and BN on the 14GE in the next 3 years? I'm curious this relates to the announcement from PAS muktamar (assembly) today. Which I consider much more important than yesterday Nothing2Hide.
It was a clean sweep of "Ulama" (scholars) over the "Erdogan" (professionals), or pro-Anwar faction within PAS. And thus, LKS announced the death of Pakatan Rakyat. Although PAS claims that they will continue their work within PR, but also maintaining the talk with UMNO.
The GE13 boosts seats to both UMNO and DAP, reflecting the success of racial rhetoric during the election. PAS and Chinese BN component parties had lost due to they were with the wrong side. Pro-Malay must be in BN, while Pro-Chinese/Progressive must be with PR. (Fortunately, there is no Indian party with the opposition, hence MIC gained more seats.) I doubt it for how long PAS which identify themselves as religious party will continue to work with DAP and PKR as the opposition coalition. This is not natural.
GE14 perhaps will intensify more racial rhetoric. Just it's the fastest and most effective way to gain more seats. The Chinese component parties in BN, if they decide to continue to work in BN (which I believe they will), they will need to attack on the corruption of opposition's state administration. While PAS will make alternative on joining with BN. DAP will obviously play more racial rhetoric. The problem is at PKR on how Dr Wan Azizah can join hand with Azmin Ali without Anwar leading the opposition to wage the battle in the next election.
Actually, PAS used to be a component party within BN (at that time it's Alliance Party), before PAS had been expelled because of violence in Kelantan and the 1977 Kelantan Emergency. If PAS really decides to join BN, Najib will be happy to resolve BN's problem on gaining more seats for BN, not only for UMNO. Dr M can no longer blame him on this matter.
However, this will create more problem later. Since Najib's economic transformation program will unintentionally move the country to be more "secular". PAS and conservative factions within BN will feel more reluctant on this issue. They will intensify on the stronger identity politics (both racial and religious issue), to resist this "modernization" movement. In the end, BN will be forced from within to make some change due to the internal contradiction. And I'm curious this is the beginning of the process of tectonic shift?