Thailand under Water
Thailand under Water
I gave a comment in Wandering in wilderness <http://www.gotoknow.org/posts/575315> and somehow caught ยายธี's attention. She asked: ...ช่วยคิดเป็นตัวเลขเล่นๆให้หน่อย...(จ้า)...ว่า..อีกห้าสิบปีข้างหน้า..ถ้าน้ำทะเล..มันสูงขึ้นจริงๆหรือความจริงมันก็เห็นๆอยู่แล้ว..ชายฝั่ง(ทั)ทะเล..และอีกร้อยปีข้างหน้า..กับรอยเคลื่อนแผ่นดินที่มีผลกระทบ..(ฝรั่งว่าไว้)จะมีผลต่อหลายๆจังหวัด...ในประเทศไทย..คนที่อยู่ในประเทศนี้...รัฐนี้..มีตัวเลข..ที่ให้คิดเล่นๆได้ยังไง..เศรษฐกิจ การเมือง สิ่งแวดล้อม ประชากร..ต่อเนื้อที่ที่เหลือ..กับอุทกภัยที่จะเกิดขึ้นและรุนแรงขึ้นเป็นลำดับ...น่ะค่าาา...
<picture: thailand-topology.jpg="" <a="" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods>"><Thanks for the picture to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods>
What is the question, really?
Sea water seems to be rising as we can see from coasts. What will happen to (provinces of) Thailand in 50 years time and 100 years time when together with effects of land movements ('continental drift') in terms of effects on economy, politics, environment and people ...on remaining land ...more frequent and more serious flooding?
Though, it seemed like a friendly invite to chat but It was a BIG ASK as we would see. I thought about the question for a good while and I decided to accept the challenge --to give an answer that is simple and plausible--. Furthermore, it must be a "mathematical" answer as she was very clear with these words --ช่วยคิดเป็นตัวเลขเล่นๆให้หน่อย...(จ้า)--.
How do I answer this question, really?
I could spend my next 5 years in 'research' (and if I am smart enough, I could convince many graduate schools to fund the research and to give me a few PhD's in the process), but most people would at the end of 5 years have forgotten the question or would have wanted an answer 'yesterday'. It is a big and important question for one person to find facts and relevant theories to make up possible solutions and to give one best possible answer. It is a problem for not just Thailand but many coastal countries. It is a big problem for millions of people in Thailand (quick use a map to see what provinces are on the coast and add up population in those provinces, then make a simple first guess like 25% of the population are affected) and many many millions more around the world. As ยายธี already hinted this question needs answers in socio-politico-economic terms, so it needs expertise in many 'disciplines' including many sciences and 'number crunching' (or mathematics). Though the question does not go into 'technologies, design, and engineering' (in order to 'implement' the solution), one must wonder if any answer is plausible, feasible and at what cost given the current states of 'technologies, design patterns, and engineering'.
...That's it for now, we will continue later...
ความเห็น (2)
Global Sea Level Rise Map
That's it for now, we will continue later... อิอิ