Abtract: This study tested the forcasting model from Timeseries of influenza cases per month data in Nakhon Si Thammarat between 1994 to 2003 with a total of 120 months. Calculating forcasting values from 7 timeseries forcasting models by Mathermatica. In this study calculated forcasting values from each model and calculated error values between actual values and forcasting values. After calculated that to compare error values from each models by using analysis of variance and calculated post test by using Student Newman Keuls method for checking the good model and different or not from other model. The result from this study showed that minimum error values from SES0.8 model (Single Exponential Smoothing Model by using constant values 0.8 ) and not different from Single Exponential Smoothing Model by using constant values 0.8 and start value at 0.2 (SES0.8,0.2) but result of two model different from other model and maximum error values from Global Linear Trend Model (GLT).
TESTING TIMESERIES FORCASTING MODELS ON INFLUENZA CASES IN NAKHON SI THAMMARAT