Thailand under Water 6: Impacts, Images, and Imagination
Thailand under Water 6: Impacts, Images, and Imagination
It has taken a while to write about impacts of sea level rise on Thailand. This is because there is not much data with numbers (we want for our estimates) and available research time (on my part). This is an outline of how we list impacts and costs for use in our response to seawater level rise (SLR)
1) searching the Internet gives us a list of what people have thought, worked and found on impacts of SLR on Thailand. Worth reading among them are :
- http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_last_15.html
Historical sea level changes / Last two decades : evidence says avg swr of 3.2 mm/yr
- http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-17/sea-level-rises-will-cost-australia-billions-report/5748676
- http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=298
== Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
== 6.5.2. Economic Costs of Sea-Level Rise
"...Several different methods have been used to estimate economic costs. Yohe and Neumann (1997) focus attention on the cost-benefit procedures applied by coastal planners to evaluate shoreline protection projects in relation to sea-level rise. They develop three alternative adaptive responses to the inundation threat from climate-induced sea-level rise: cost-benefit with adaptation foresight (CBWAF), cost-benefit absent adaptation (CBAA), and protection guaranteed (PG). On economic grounds, CBWAF became the preferred option; CBAA conforms most closely with the routine application of existing procedures. "Adaptation foresight" in Yohe and Neumann's cost-benefit procedures assumes that erosion resulting from sea-level rise is a gradual process and that storm impacts do not change as sea level rises. West and Dowlatabadi (1999) suggest, however, that although a rise in sea level may be gradual and predictable, the effects of storms on coastal shorelines and structures are often stochastic and uncertain, in part because of sea-level rise effects...."
- http://www.adb.org/features/economic-costs-rising-sea-levels-asia-and-pacific
Economic Costs of Rising Sea Levels in Asia and the Pacific 3 January 2014
About 12 million: The number of people in 23 East Asian cities who are at risk of severe flooding from rising sea levels.
- https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/land/soil/salinity/impacts/
Last updated 1 October 2013
- Smith Dharmasaroja, chairman
of the Committee of National Disaster Warning Administration,
ominously warned in 2007, “We feel that with the ground sinking
and the sea water rising, Bangkok will be under sea water in the
next 15 to 20 years — permanently.”
- <South East Asian — Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training,
“Climate Change Impacts in Krabi Province, Thailand: A study of environmental,
social, and economic challenges” (Bangkok: South East Asian — Global Change
System for Analysis, Research and Training, December 2009), <http://cc.start.
or.th/climateChange/Document/Doc_eng_11.pdf>.
Yongyuth Yuthavong, “Thai strategies to fight climate change”, The Nation,
26 December 2007.>
- https://www.academia.edu/2047244/Climate_Change_and_Thailand_Impact_and_Response
By Danny Marks:
Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 33, No. 2 (2011), pp. 229–58
DOI: 10.1355/cs33-2d© 2011 ISEAS ISSN 0129-797X print / ISSN 1793-284X electronic
NB. The paper by Danny Marks is interesting that political aspects are also mentioned.
2) Searching for GIS information to quickly see where impacts are (likely to occur) to make another list. But because I could not find enough reports on impacts on Thailand, we will have to use Thailand floods reports as our base for estimation.
- http://www.thaiwater.net/web/index.php/ourworks2554/379-2011flood-summary.html
<map of flood areas>
- wikipedia pages on Thailand Tsunami 2004; Thailands Floods 2011 - 2014:
"...The flood crisis impacted a total of 4,039,459 households and 13,425,869 people; 2,329 houses were completely destroyed, while 96,833 houses were partially damaged; death toll reached to 657 people and 3 were reported missing. As of December 2011, Word Bank estimated damages to have reached THB 1,440 billion. Because of the major affects on the industrial sector, unemployment has stemmed due to the closure of multiple factories. The economy continues to be in a delicate position as the flood impact has reduced investors’ and insurance companies’ confidence, which will ultimately lead to an increase in unemployment and poor economy. Tourism, another substantial revenue in the economy, suffered a loss of THB 3.71 billion and a fall of 3.2 million tourists according to the Tourism Ministry. Although domestic tourism will recover prompter than international tourism, international tourism revenue contributes twice that of domestic tourism. Urgent measures have been instigated, but the journey in recovery and enhancement is years ahead.
< Compare to Tsunami 2004 Thailand: 5,3953 confirmed deaths 8,212 estimated deaths 8,457 injured 2,817 missing and 7,000 displaced >
A great deal of humanitarian aid was needed because of widespread damage of the infrastructure, shortages of food and water, and economic damage. Epidemics were of special concern due to the high population density and tropical climate of the affected areas. The main concern of humanitarian and government agencies was to provide sanitation facilities and fresh drinking water to contain the spread of diseases such as cholera, diphtheria, dysentery, typhoid and hepatitis A and B.
There was also a great concern that the death toll could increase as disease and hunger spread. However, because of the initial quick response, this was minimized..."
3) We have to use our imagination to make another list to complete our cost estimates. The third list will include (indirect) consequences of SLR such as loss of livelihood and/or employment due to degradation of beaches, arable land, fresh water reservoirs, roads and other infrastructures; political contentions at all levels can also create or amplify impacts. Just imagine ourselves making journey through impact zones ... make a list of what we think can be arising from SLR and its impactsL soil salinity, tourists and hospitality services; water and chemical polution, transportation (commuting, emergency visits, goods distribution, ...),...
From these lists we can now identify objects, issues, stakeholders (impacted parties) and side-effects. We can estimate their values and probabilities. We can see what areas are impacted; how severe on physical, polico-economic and cultural aspects; and what are our options in hanling the impacts 'wholistically'; and...
Remember, we set out to 'think about it and use numbers to work things out'? Here is where I will leave you to mull over until we see the last part (7) of this topic --errrr-- soon. >
ความเห็น (2)
How can we post this thought to the involved sectors?
Dear โอ๋-อโณ : This has been in my mind for some time.
I know that using English does not help either. I have (had) some hope that some people may talk about and lead others to think and talk about. It is like growing trees from seeds. One has to spend a lot of work and time to raise them to a point that they can grow on their own. And much like growing real trees, planting them in wrong places means they don't do well!
Perhaps, you can do better with your high profile, better expressions and language, being closer to the 'coal face' and no doubt living in a high risk area. We can see that 'we' must do a number of things including calling for government policy and preparations. I called. Now...