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KMA weather forecast Accuracy

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KMA Gearing Up to Improve Weather Forecast Accuracy


   Chun Byung-seong, administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration, is optimistic that the weather agency’s forecasting accuracy will improve following a series of steps it has taken this year.
/ Korea Times Photo by Shim Hyun-chul


By Park Si-soo
Staff Reporter

The state-run Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was the target of public criticism for its occasionally inaccurate weather forecasting last year. However, the weather agency is confident that a series of steps it has taken will raise the accuracy of its forecasts in the future.

``It will be different this year,'' KMA Administrator Chun Byung-seong said in an interview with The Korea Times. ``Forecasting weather 100 percent correctly is impossible. But I'm 100 percent sure that the measures we are carrying through will improve our accuracy to a great extent.''

The agency will put South Korea's first weather satellite into orbit soon and introduce a high-end supercomputer that is much faster than its current one. On top of the refurbished hardware, a renowned foreign weather specialist will be hired to help boost the forecast capability of the KMA, Chun said.

The multi-functional satellite has been jointly developed since 2003 by the KMA, the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, the Ministry of Land, Transportation and Maritime Affairs, and the Korea Communications Commission.

With a budget of 354 billion won ($263 million) spent on development, the satellite is capable of monitoring the Korean peninsula around the clock, and will be put into orbit from Guiana, a French territory in South America, in December, making South Korea the seventh country in the world to operate its own weather satellite.

``So far, we have received international weather information via American and Japanese satellites every 30 minutes, but the domestically produced observer will halve that time. It will also play a greater role in forecasting when the country is subject to abnormal weather conditions such as typhoons,'' he said. The administration opened a command center in Jincheon, North Chungcheong Province, in June last year.

The KMA also plans to introduce a high-end supercomputer, estimated at being nearly 10 times faster than its current one, which has been in operation since 2004. The administration earmarked 55 billion won from this year's budget to purchase the computer. (***คูณ 0.03 เป็นเงินบาท)

It is pushing ahead with a plan to recruit a foreign weather expert this year in an effort to enhance the level of its forecasting accuracy, international coordination, and to chart policies promoting industries relevant to weather forecasting.

``A foreign expert will be employed by June. But we have no plans for further overseas hiring as of yet,'' Chun said. ``This is to bring in outside talent to the KMA, which has remained unchallenged in its corporate structure and working system for a long time, giving us the opportunity to assess our capability with a fresh pair of eyes.''

He underscored the improvement of forecasting capability as the most important task at hand.

Even though we have high-end tools to spot any suspicious air movements, this will go unheeded without staff capable of monitoring it, he said. To obtain talented researchers, KMA consistently recruits first-class students majoring in meteorology-related subjects at domestic and overseas universities. It has also run educational programs for its employees in cooperation with the University of Oklahoma.

Chun, 54, earned a bachelors and doctors degree in law from Kunkook University in Seoul and a masters degree in economics from the University of Illinois in the U.S. After working at various posts in the Ministry of Environment, he took office in January.

Open to private agencies

Private weather forecasters at home and abroad will be allowed to give weather predictions using domestic media outlets as early as next year. This is expected to provide tailor-made information to weather-sensitive businesses and people, and bring sound competition to a service that has been monopolized by the KMA for six decades.

A bill making domestic media available to private weather agencies will be submitted to the National Assembly by August and is expected to take effect as early as 2010, Chun said. ``Foreign weather agencies will also benefit from this change,'' he said.

The administration is gathering opinions from concerned experts and studying cases in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, where media outlets in each country use information from state-run and private weather forecasters, a prerequisite step to finalize the bill.

The chief said the commercialization plan is a double-edged sword.

``Once this happens, people will have the opportunity to receive diverse forecasts and select a provider offering the information they are looking for. It will also lead to concerned bodies competing with each other to produce more accurate and sought-after information, resulting in an upgrade of overall services in the field,'' the KMA chief said. ``But some confusion is also expected in its early stages. With few private agencies being capable of producing reliable information, it's very likely that contradictory forecasts on a specific day or place will be made.''

Analysts estimate that there are around 11 private forecasters here, but most of them are small- and medium-sized firms, lacking sufficient funds and the high-end tools needed to produce accurate forecasts.

Hub of weather information and technology

The KMA has gradually come to play a world role as a contributor in the field of meteorology. It has raised its status in the international community through collaborating in the development of new meteorological technologies and sharing a role in supporting developing countries, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia.

The APEC Climate Center (APCC) was established by the KMA in Busan in 2005, and has played an important role in investigating worldwide climate change. It has made efforts to minimize or, if possible, stop further development of the man-made catastrophe by providing climate prediction information, and sharing staff and economic resources in the Asian-Pacific region.

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Source : http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2009/07/242_43671.html