ความเห็น 1741527

ปัจจัยท้าทายประเทศไทยปี 2553

Prof. Dr. Chira Hongladarom
IP: xxx.8.177.90
เขียนเมื่อ 

Title: Challenging Factors for Thailand’s Sustainable Development Next Year

Column: Learning from Reality with Dr. Chira Hongladarom

Source: Naewna.  December 12, 2009, p.5

 

All Thais’ happiness is to see the King appearing at the Pavilion of Hall and saying that his happiness is to see Thais to do their best with

  • prudence
  • wisdom
  • honesty
  • and public spirit

 

To comply to the King’s saying, I partnered with 3 groups: Stamford International University,Sustainable Thais Group and Foundation for International Human Resource Development in organizing annual seminar on December 8, 2009. We are neither government, MPs nor civil servants but we are Thais who love and care for Thailand and want to do our best on making contribution to the society.

 

I would like to take this opportunity to report about that seminar at Stamford International University.

 

The topic was on “Looking at Thailand from challenging perspective and sustainable in 2010 and beyond”:

 

I can say that no organizations could have well-rounded perspectives on challenges for Thailand. Most of them touched on some socio-political aspects. We included other views besides economics.

 

The first speaker is Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool from Bank of Thailand focusing on “Thai economic in 2010”. The main contents are as follows.

  • Thai economic has reached the bottom.
  • Economic recovery has certainly improved in Quarter 3-4, 2009.
  • Economic recovery in 2010 will be slow and not in L, U, W, V shape. It is like V-shaped like Nike. It will recover but slowly.
  • The slowdown does not matter but the recovery is solid and will expand to several sectors and industries.

 

Besides industry, Dr. Kobsak said that tourism sector could recover fast and agricultural product price trend would get better in 2010.

 

Another risk is the large markets like the U.S. and Europe. They still face debt restructuring problem. Obama imposed more risk by sending a troop of 30,000 to Afghanistan and would worsen the U.S. several deficit.

 

I also agree that Thailand’s economic sustainability will depend on Abhisit’s Government. Please hurriedly look at the stimulus from Thai Kem-Kaeng Project will create long-term benefits.

 

For example, the Government should look at R&D and human capital in all sectors, serious human resource development for civil servants, alternative energy, logistics, environment, global warming creating economic value. I am afraid that the government spending focusing on short term will lead to unstable economy. If two sources of stimulus were gone, what would they use as sustainable economic stimulus in 2010?

 

The second speaker is Dr. Sorajak Kasemsuwan talking about “Thai society and education in 2010”. According to his presentation, it is not enough to look at 2010 only. No matter of economic situation, we still have risks. Thais lack thinking skill, learning culture, reading habits and life-long learning.

 

He joked that Creative Economy policy without high quality education would be Copy Economy which Thais are good at. Dr. Sorajak Kasemsuwan said Thailand’s sustainability was mainly due to on education and human capital.

 

The third speaker is Mr. Manoon Siriwan talking about “Energy direction in 2010”. He saw risks on energy in 2010. The price will rise to 80 USD. In 2011, it will rise more 100 USD. All governments are afraid of high energy price so they highly subsidize it. Mr. Manoon Siriwan support economic principle of avoiding energy price interference. I told the audience that politicians did not like economic because it did not help them gain more votes. Consumers have to suffer in short term but good in long term.

 

Popularity is not enough. Economics said that expensive products must be carefully used because they had high value. I added that alternative energy and energy saving were very important in 2010.

 

The fourth speaker is Mr. Prapat Potiworakun talking about “Industrial direction in 2010.” He said that Thai industry has improved. Now, 60% of exports go to new markets and reduce the risk from the decrease of export values to the U.S. and Europe. We must beware of Maptaput problem because it will impose the risks on the industry and environment in the future.

 

The fifth speaker is Mr. Somchai Sarovat talking about “Foreign trade in 2010.” He emphasized that export remained necessary because GDP contribution of export is more than 70%. In 2010, there should be more domestic consumption. In 2010, export will certainly expand. Large and small companies must emphasize on entrepreneurship. Young exporters and women exporters should receive more support.

 

Risk factors of 2010 are as follows.

  • Public sector must rely on private sector in searching for new markets.
  • Logistics cost must be improved. The cost must be reduced from 19 to 13%.

 

The last speaker is Mr. Prakai Cholahan talking about “People management direction in 2010”. According to his presentation, next year, HR trend will be as follows.

  • Leaders must seriously pay attention to human resource. Do not care only for finance and marketing only.
  • Creativity and innovation will be significant in all sectors. Human resource will drive organization through changes.
  • Learning organization must be very important and will spread to all levels of the organization.

 

In conclusion, this seminar includes well-rounded perspectives. It looks at

traditional to look at economic, finance and international trade but include soft side. If it sustains, excellent education is needed. Leaders in organization must care for human resource and create loyalty and happiness for staffs. Then, the work will be successful.

 

This is a great challenge.

 

Seminar on “Looking at Thailand from challenging perspective and sustainable in 2010 and beyond” on December 8, 2009 at Stamford International University

 Speakers: (From left) Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool, Dr. Sorajak Kasemsuwan, Mr. Manoon Siriwan Mr. Prapat Potiworakun, Mr. Somchai Sarovat and Mr. Prakai Cholahan. Prof. Dr. Chira Hongladarom was moderator.

Q&A Session

Group photo of the speakers and participants