Naewna on January 27, 2018
Why Trump joined the Forum in Davos reflected in 3 Circles Theory.
The current hot news is World Economic Forum 2018 in Davos. President Trump decided to join this forum. This participation greatly surprised insiders.
World Economic Forum focuses on these issues.
- Free Trade
- Globalization promotion
- Global Warming problem solution support - Public-private-academic cooperation to save the world to sustainability Trump’s visit shocked the world because he opposed to World Economic Forum’s philosophies.
Trump promoted “America First” concept. He withdrew the USA from free trade and Trans- pacific Partnership (TPP). He negotiated for withdrawal from NAFTA. Recently, Trump has set up the Chinese import tariff as Protectionism.
Before continuing the analysis, I would like to introduce my 3 Circles Theory.
I got this concept from James Martin’s “The Great Transition” Book. Then, I developed it to apply at the national and organizational levels. The first circle is “Context”. Trump decided to join this forum because he thought that the current world context focused on free trade. However, he was influenced by Steve Bannon to promote “America First” concept.
He thought to join Davos forum to invite other countries to invest in the USA and create more jobs so that the US stock markets would expand more. However, the decision to invest in the USA depends on profitability. If the USA have high labor cost and poor quality of human capital, the investors will move to invest somewhere else. In the past, Japanese investors came to invest in Thailand because they could save the production cost. Most Apple’s iPhones are still produced in China.
The second circle focuses on human quality or competencies. Trump’s decision to join Davos may not match his philosophies. Trump still thinks that he is the world leader. To present his leadership, he must show that he is still playing active roles in the world stage like World Economic Forum. In the last circle, Trump went to Davos to motivate his opposition to support his standpoints.
Besides 3 Circles Theory, we do not know whether he can execute it or overcome the difficulties. We do not know whether Trump gained the acceptance from the Davos Forum participants. His presence may not be acceptable for the majority and those who disagree with his approach. The theme of Davos 2018 forum might be “Fractured World”. The participants should discuss to find out how to lessen the fracture as shown on Trumps’ policies as follows.
- The USA’s withdrawal from the Climate Change Accord
- The withdrawal from free trade
When Trump was newly elected as the US President, Xi Jinping spoke at Davos 2017 Forum that he would support the world to have more trade cooperation and globalization despite the Chinese’s status as a socialist country. This year, Indian President Modi spoke before Trump that India supported globalization. Based on 3 Circles Theory, we can see that Trump wanted to secure his leadership as mentioned in the second circle. In the third circle of motivation, he wanted to show that despite Davos Forum’s support for globalization, the US as a superpower did not want to lose the leadership role to China or India. However, Trump’s standpoint completely differed from World Economic Forum.
We can briefly say that Trump has high Ego. His participation in Davos Forum might not be acceptable. He still thinks that the USA are the leader. We must follow whether he will succeed in this.
Prof. Dr. Chira Hongladarom
Source: Learning from Reality with Dr. Chira Column. Naewna.
Saturday 27 January 2018, p.5
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ความเห็น (1)
Just read Time magazine (Fire and Fury) and noted that the article says President Trump may enjoy winning presidency more than actually holding and working on the president's office (duties of position).