TESTING TIMESERIES FORCASTING MODELS ON INFLUENZA CASES IN NAKHON SI THAMMARAT

Abtract:  This study tested  the forcasting model  from   Timeseries of   influenza cases  per month  data  in   Nakhon  Si  Thammarat   between  1994   to  2003 with a total of 120   months. Calculating   forcasting   values from 7   timeseries   forcasting   models by     Mathermatica. In this study calculated forcasting values from each   model and calculated   error values between actual values and forcasting values. After calculated that to compare error values from each  models  by  using  analysis  of   variance   and  calculated post test  by using  Student Newman Keuls method for checking the good model  and different or not from other model. The result from this study showed  that  minimum error values from  SES0.8 model  (Single Exponential   Smoothing   Model   by   using   constant  values  0.8 )  and  not  different  from  Single  Exponential  Smoothing  Model   by   using  constant   values  0.8   and  start  value at  0.2 (SES0.8,0.2)  but  result of  two model different  from other model and maximum error values from Global Linear Trend Model (GLT).